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| (Illustration courtesy of Jesse Racusen) |
Yes, we -- the royal we, because I'm just one guy -- of Reetae do not encourage gambling. If you're an adult and you're in Vegas, go ahead and live your life, but for the love of Moses, don't put money on any of the predictions I'm about to make. I don't need you dying behind a dumpster, broke and alone, because you went all in on one of my guesstimates, especially if you refused to move on and your ghost haunted me the rest of my life. Please, save me the trouble and kindly ignore all the stupid projections you're going to read.
Now that that's out of the way, let's jump into those stupid projections. Every year, sportsbooks put out preseason over/under's on how many games each team will win. Some sports (basketball) are easier to gauge than others, but baseball is known for being random. It's impossible to tell which team will suffer an injury and watch their season fade away and which team will get a Mike Troutian breakout performance from one of their youngsters. And that makes guessing the win totals both fun and challenging.
I've decided to take a stab at all 30 teams, with the mission being to get as many over/under's right as humanly possible. At the end of the year, I'd like to be able to say I was right on at least 15 of these. If I split even, then at least I won't have been defined by my suckitude like I will if I get 16 or more wrong.
So yeah, here's hoping I'm not totally wrong on these. (In case you were wondering, these possible win totals come from the Heritage Sports website; offshore gambling sites and Vegas casinos tend to have very similar lines, so the difference between these totals and what you'd find in a Vegas casino is minimal. Again, not that you cared, but in case you did, there you go.)
Arizona Diamondbacks: 82.5 Wins
In movies, casinos often sucker people into giving them their money by starting them out with really easy bets to make them think they know what they're doing. Maybe that's the reasoning behind this total, because to me it seems like a no-brainer. Arizona won 81 games last year, but they lost Justin Upton, they traded away their top prospect, and their lineup blows. It's Paul Goldschmidt and a bunch of .260 hitters. So no, an 83-win team this is not. Start me out with heaping helping of UNDER.
Atlanta Braves: 87.5 Wins
This is a very interesting, low-balled number. Atlanta won 94 games a year ago, and they added the Upton brothers, meaning their lineup is so deep now that Dan Uggla will probably bat seventh most of the year -- assuming Brian McCann can stay healthy, which rarely happens nowadays. In theory, they should be better than they were last year, but I'm not sold on their pitching staff, which is rather ho-hum once you get beyond Kris Medlen. And the Phillies and Nats will be much tougher obstacles than they were a year ago. Wins will be harder to come by; nonetheless, I'm compelled to say OVER because I can't see them being seven games worse than they were last year.
Baltimore Orioles: 78.5 Wins
That sound you hear is me doing a barrel-roll off the Orioles bandwagon, which I fully expect to careen over the side of a cliff this year. Adam Jones is a nice player, but none of the other hitters in their lineup wow you, and Matt Weiters isn't the mega-superstar everyone said he would be three years ago. Also, their pitching blows. They had eight pitchers start more than 10 games last year, and five of them had ERA's over four. I don't know what Greek god Buck Showalter was sacrificing animals to to make the Orioles a 93-game winner, but I don't believe in them for a second. Call me a hater or a doubter, but I just don't have faith in any aspect of this team, so I gotta go UNDER.
Boston Red Sox: 82.5 Wins
Yes, yes, their starting pitching blows. But they solidified their bullpen by adding Joel Hanrahan and they're getting back a healthy Andrew Bailey. Most importantly, they've dispensed with all the crazy, loud malcontents that ruined their season last year. Jacoby Ellsbury is healthy, Shane Victorino will be an upgrade over the always-injured Carl Crawford, and anything they get out of Mike Napoli is cake. Also, David Ortiz is still getting it done -- I'll mention him just so the above header image has a purpose. As horrendous as their starting pitching is capable of being, they've filled enough holes -- and their lineup is still formidable enough -- that I see them going OVER no problem. They may not make the playoffs or anything, but an 83-79 record seems very doable.
Chicago Cubs: 72.5 Wins
Will the Cubs lose 90 games this year? Hell yeah they will -- they're the Chicago Cubs! Even with Theo Epstein in at GM, this franchise still can't do anything right. It isn't that they need to rebuild -- it's that they've been trying, desperately, to rebuild by shelling some of their grossly-overpaid players, and for whatever reason they can't seem to lose them. Carlos Marmol and Alfonso Soriano must feel like the kid who got picked last in dodgeball at this point, because it seems like they've been on the trade block since the Bush Administration and they're still there. Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro are nice building blocks, but the rest of this team is still total garbage, and they lost 101 games a year ago. A resounding UNDER.
Chicago White Sox: 81 Wins
The White Sox have an interesting pattern to them; in even-numbered years they've been awesome, and in odd-numbers they've been below .500. In 2006 they won 90 games, followed by 72 wins in '07, 89 wins in '08, 79 wins in '09, 88 wins in '10, 79 wins in '11 and 85 wins in '12. Essentially, they're alternating from sucking in odd-numbered years to being division contenders in even-numbered years. And since it's 2013, it stands to reason that they'll be lousy this year. If the Star Trek films have taught us anything, it's that patterns such as this are not merely anomalies, but ironclad occurrences to be respected. And it shall be respected. UNDER? Make it so.
Cleveland Indians: 77.5 Wins
I love the Indians this year; they are officially my pick to be this season's darkhouse sleeper that comes out of nowhere and shocks the world with an above-.500 season. Adding Michael Bourn, Mark Reynolds, Drew Stubbs and Nick Swisher puts quality bats around Jason Kipnis, Asdrubal Cabrera and Carlos Santana. Their pitching, lead by Ubaldo Jimenez and Justin Masterson, is only so-so, but it isn't slated to be a complete disaster, and let's not forget that they did manage to steal Trevor Bauer from the Diamondbacks. The Indians may not be much more than a .500 team, but they actually fill out every position pretty well, and having Terry Francona as their manager certainly can't hurt. Color me OVER.
Cincinnati Reds: 91 Wins
On the one hand, losing perennial punching bag Houston to the American League could make it harder for the Reds to pad the win column. But that hand is very flimsy and not worth paying much attention to; it's impossible to look dismissively at a team that's about to move Aroldis Chapman to the starting rotation, where he could easily become a superstar. Then consider that the Reds won 97 last year, and that was with Joey Votto missing 51 games. Getting 92 wins seems not only manageable but an inevitability at this point, so there's no reason not to go OVER.
Colorado Rockies: 70.5 Wins
This is one of those borderline totals that's incredibly tough to call. Their lineup -- if it features a healthy Troy Tulowitzki -- is dandy enough that they should be able to score a lot of runs. But that's a big if, and their starting pitching has all the consistency of a tidal wave. I'm going to say OVER because they won 73 two years ago, and because that division features enough terrible offenses that they should be able to squeak out a few spare wins now and then. But it's a pick I make with absolutely no confidence.
Detroit Tigers: 92.5 Wins
Somehow the Tigers didn't run away with the division last year, winning only 88 games and struggling just to get into the postseason. Things should be smoother for them this time around. They get Victor Martinez and Brennan Boesch back, they added Torii Hunter and they wisely decided to throw Jose Valverde over the side of a boat. Plus, they easily have the three best players in their division, and that fact alone makes it easy for me to go OVER here.
Houston Astros: 58.5 Wins
There's every reason in the world to think this is the worst team in the American League, if not in all of baseball. Not only are they the worst team two years running, their transition to the AL means they'll primarily face pitchers and hitters who they've never seen before. They were horrendous in the NL, but at least they were familiar with the payers kicking their ass. Now, it's like they have to rediscover just how atrocious they are, and to boot, they're in a division that had three plus-.500 teams a year ago. 58.5, as low as it is, isn't low enough for my taste. UNDER.
Kansas City Royals: 78 Wins
The Royals may have a nice collection of young talent, but they're impossible to believe in. They made the astoundingly stupid decision of trading Wil Myers, the best prospect in baseball, for 31-year-old James Shields, an okay pitcher who should have never, ever, ever been swapped for a potential superstar. Beyond that, the Royals' nucleus of youngsters was erratic as hell last year. Mike Moustakas batted .242, Eric Hosmer batted .232, and really the only guy who stood out was Billy Butler. Plus, their pitching staff is full of guys who could be sent to the Phantom Zone and you'd never know they were missing. 78 wins sounds way to optimistic to me. UNDER.
Los Angeles Angels: 91.5 Wins
It's hard not to salivate over the Angels' lineup. Trout, Hamilton and Pujols are the best trio of hitters in baseball, and with Pujols having struggled to adjust to the American League, Trout being a rookie and missing a month of the year and Hamilton dealing with his contract situation in Texas, what's spooky is that all three of these guys could be even better in 2013. Their bullpen is excellent and their rotation is good enough. That's not to say that Joe Blanton being in the rotation is a good thing, but it definitely isn't. But they have more than enough firepower to make up for whatever holes they have on the mound. OVER.
Los Angeles Dodgers: 91.5 Wins
I honestly can't say whether or not the Dodgers will win the National League West, or even make the playoffs. But on paper, I can comfortably say that they have a really, really good team. Matt Kemp, Hanley Ramirez, Arian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and Andre Ethier give them a truly potent lineup, and their one-two pitching combination of Clayton Kershaw and Zach Greinke is sweet. Beyond the glamor names though, the Dodgers have some total nobodies filling key positions: A.J. Ellis at catcher, Mark Ellis at second, and Luis Cruz at third. And their rotation beyond Greinke and Kershaw is shaky -- mostly aging veterans who get hurt a lot. And speaking of injuries, Ramirez and Kemp are both perfectly capable of torpedoing the Dodgers' season by developing a chronic injury out of nowhere. So there's no guarantees with this team. That being said, they won 86 last year despite Kemp's injuries and adding Greinke should be worth an extra six wins. So I'll go OVER.
Miami Marlins: 63.5 Wins
Hmm... This is a hard one to call, because the Marlins have a knack for finishing better than you'd think they'd finish at the beginning of the year. And they still have Giancarlo Stanton, who could easily lead the majors in home runs. But I'm going to go UNDER, if only because taking the over would mean I'd actually be rooting for them to win games this year, and I can't bring myself to do that. I want Jeffrey Loria, the greatest conman since Damon Lindelof and P.T. Barnum, to suffer as much as strife as humanly possible in one season. You can call it schadenfreude, but the dude ripped off taxpayers, ripped off season ticket holders and now spends his days lying about what a great farm system they have. Donald Sterling, the Clippers owner, may have overseen two decades of horrible basketball, and may even be a racist, but Sterling is what he is. He never bilked the public by pretending to care about putting a good product out there. Loria on the other hand... you know what, I'm going to stop because this paragraph is going long. But yeah: screw the Marlins.
Milwaukee Brewers: 81 Wins
If the Brew Crew have any juice to them, it's because they have Ryan Braun, the best, most consistent hitter in the National League. And... that's kind of all they have. Aramis Ramirez is a solid player, but losing Zach Greinke reduces their pitching rotation to a bunch of guys named Fred who have ERA's near four. It's not that Rickie Weeks and Jonathan Lucroy and others are bad. It's mostly that if you were to remove Ryan Braun, and you headlined them with Ramirez and Weeks and Lucroy, you'd see that they're just a so-so team. The presence of Braun will put them right around that .500 mark, but I'm going to go UNDER due to the loss of Greinke. It's just hard to see such a middling pitching rotation doing much in the same division as the Reds and Cardinals.
Minnesota Twins: 67.5 Wins
Ugh. See, here's where the oddsmarkers get tricky. I don't like the Twins at all; they won 66 games a year ago, they lost Francisco Liriano, their pitching is spectacularly bad and their top two hitters -- Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau -- come down with crazy injuries every other week. Also, Vance Worley is their number one pitcher. I mean, come on... Vance Worley can't possibly be the opening day starter of a winning team. It's not possible. And yet, I'm compelled to go OVER, since I think they should still have just enough stuff to produce 68 wins. Morneau and Mauer are at least quality hitters when they're out there, and Josh Willingham went for 35 homers and 110 RBI last year, so it's conceivable they could somehow get two more wins than last year... I think.
New York Mets: 75 Wins
I can safely conclude that the Mets will go UNDER here because they only won 74 games a year ago, and that was with Cy Young-winner R.A. Dickey. With Dickey gone, the Mets have to rely on their regular allotment of completely unreliable, fragile ballplayers: David Wright, Johan Santana, Lucas Duda, Ike Davis, Daniel Murphy. It's hard to impart much wisdom on the Mets because they put out the same damn team every year. The Mets are like the moon. Every now and then they'll surprise you by being good -- or in the moon's case, getting closer or something -- but for the most part, you can always count on them to be in the same place they were last year. (Man, that was a dumb analogy. Oh well, it stays.)
New York Yankees: 87.5 Wins
If the Philadelphia Phillies from last year taught me anything, it's that you can never assume a team will get all its pieces back in time to make a run at the playoffs -- even if the team has all the starpower that the Yankees have. With Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira and Curtis Granderson all out to begin the year, their four-through-nine hitters will look something like this: Kevin Youkilis (4), Travis Hafner (5), Juan Rivera (6), Dan Johnson (7), Austin Romine (8), and Brett Gardner (9). In other words: a disaster. Considering all their injuries, I think it'd be an accomplishment for them to get even 85 wins, and 88 seems like a fairytale. Robinson Cano and Derek Jeter are good hitters, but the AL East is way, way too good this year for them to be putting out a lineup with only one hitter with 20 home runs. It's strange to say this about the vaunted Yankees, but I don't see them making the playoffs, so I gotta go UNDER.
Oakland Athletics: 84.5 Wins
I could probably just copy what I wrote about the Orioles and paste it into this paragraph, because I admit it, I'm Mr. Skeptical when it comes to teams like Oakland. Except I won't, because I'm actually going to go OVER here. The A's won 94 games last year, and they somehow got really good pitching out of a rotation of youngins' no one's ever heard of. And yet, there's simply nothing about them that they excel at. I'll give Billy Beane all the credit in the world for carving a 94-season out of a roster of also-rans, but I can't begin to explain how that roster had that season. I'm going over because a 10-win drop-off would be an awful lot for a team that won the division last year and has essentially the same players. But to be honest, I'm not even sure how they're an 84-win team. Voodoo dolls? Black magic?
Philadelphia Phillies: 84 Wins
Of all the totals listed here, the Phillies' is the one that I can most confidently make a prediction on. Yes, they're in a very challenging division, but they managed to win 81 games last year despite a multitude of injuries and Cliff Lee somehow having a losing season. This time around they're healthy and they made key improvements in the offseason; Mike Adams solidifies their bullpen and Michael Young adds more pop at third base than Placido Polanco. The Phillies won 102 games the year before, when they were healthy, so I see no reason whatsoever that an equally healthy Phillies won't at least win 85 games.OVER, big time.
Pittsburgh Pirates: 77 Wins
I think the Pirates will finish with an over-.500 record this year. Yes, that may read like the ramblings of a lunatic, but the Pirates are at long last moving in the right direction. Russell Martin is a nice addition at catcher, Liriano gives them another serviceable arm, and between Pedro Alvarez and Starling Marte, I predict at least one of them will emerge as a future star. Truthfully, I may be projecting my own wishes onto the team, because it's been two decades since they've done anything and I'd like to see their stadium filled up for once. But Andrew McCutchen is a superstar, and as long as they have him, the Pirates should at least be mildly competitive for the foreseeable future. OVER.
San Diego Padres: 74.5 Wins
Did you know that the Padres won 76 games last year? Seriously, I just assumed they were one of the worst teams in baseball since the only players of consequence they had were Chase Headley and Carlos Quentin. That's going to make saying they blow a little bit harder, especially since they'll be calling up a major prospect sometime this year in Jedd Gyorko. And yet... their roster is composed of the most C- players imaginable. They're not terrible, but when you see names like Clayton Richard and Cameron Maybin, the most you can do is shrug and say, "Meh, they're okay." I can't see a roster of Clayton Richards and Cameron Maybins winning 75 games in consecutive years, but if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. I certainly would've been wrong on their over/under last year, so take it with a grain of salt. But UNDER.
San Francisco Giants: 88 Wins
Even with Tim Lincecum having as bad a season as a two-time Cy Young winner can conceivable have, the Giants cruised past the Dodgers for the NL West pennant and then went on to win the World Series. So I have no reason to think a Giants team with a marginally better Tim Lincecum won't easily pass the 88-win threshold. OVER.
Seattle Mariners: 77.5 Wins
They won 75 games a year ago, they added Michael Morse, Jesus Montero should be better and they have maybe the best pitcher in baseball in Felix Hernandez -- even if it took a preposterous amount of money to keep him around. And adding the Astros to the mix should conceivably give the Mariners a team to beat up on in the division, which they haven't had in a long while. The Angels look scary-good, and Texas should still be competitive, but getting to play the Astros 19 times will do wonders for their win-loss record. They probably won't finish higher than fourth in the division, and yet their minor additions and the presence of the Astros forces me to say OVER.
St. Louis Cardinals: 86.5 Wins
It's very dangerous to go against the Cardinals, a franchise that seems to come away victorious in every scenario where you think they're dead. I'm tip-toeing over eggshells when I say UNDER, but I can't imagine that Carlos Beltran will mirror his 32-home run season from a year ago, nor do I see Kyle Lohse again finishing 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA. The Cardinals have an armada of quality hitters who all bat around .300, but their pitching staff isn't all that imposing with Chris Carpenter gone. I like them to finish with a winning record, but do slightly worse than they did a year ago. I may be kicking myself at the end of the year for defying the mystical winning ways of the St. Louis Cardinals, so we'll see.
Tampa Bay Rays: 86 Wins
On paper, the Rays are the most baffling team in baseball. Their lineup is held together with chewing gum and paperclips, and that's with Evan Longoria in it. Inevitably, Longoria will miss some time, and when he does, Tampa Bay will put out a lineup without a single hitter with a .300 average or 25 home runs. And yet they're going to have a good year. Why? Because somehow Joe Maddon knows what buttons to press and who to use in the lineup and when. Also, their pitching is still awfully good even without Jeremy Shields, and if Matt Moore can develop into a star, the Rays might be the team to beat in the AL East. If he doesn't, the Yankees' injuries pave the way for Tampa Bay to clear the 86-win threshold yet again. OVER.
Texas Rangers: 86.5 Wins
Losing Josh Hamilton sucked, but the offseason wasn't all bad for the Texas Rangers. Lance Berkman was a nice addition and could have a sneaky good year as their DH, and better yet, the Houston Astros joined the division -- which could gives them a lot more chances to win games. Like St. Louis, their lineup is loaded with good hitters, even if they now lack the big bopper that Hamilton was. And their rotation, with Darvish, Harrison and Ogando, isn't half bad. Even though it's hard to project them challenging the Los Angeles Angels, I still like them to win close to 90 games once again. OVER.
Toronto Blue Jays: 89 Wins
If the New York Yankees had this roster, their win line would likely be at 93 or higher. But the Blue Jays don't get that respect because they're the Blue Jays and they've been lousy forever. Let's be clear: this is an awfully good team. Between their highway robbery of the Miami Marlins, trading for R.A. Dickey and signing Melkey Cabrera, the Blue Jays have improved themselves as much as a team can possibly do so. Their lineup has a sweet combination of speedsters and home run hitters and their pitching rotation is solid with Dickey, Josh Johnson, Brandon Morrow and Ricky Romero. I'll take the OVER and won't think twice about it.
Washington Nationals: 92 Wins
You're telling me the best team in the National League, the team that's going to remove the innings cap on Stephen Strasburg, the team that'll have Bryce Harper for a full season, the team that added Rafael Soriano and Denard Span, and the team that won 98 games last year is only slated to get to 92 wins? Even in a worst-case scenario where the Braves and Phillies both managed to lap them in the standings, I'd still like the Nats to get 93 wins because they're the most complete team in baseball. Not only have they filled out every single position, their core of young players haven't even reached their peak yet; as good as Strasburg and Harper and Jordan Zimmermann and Ian Desmond are, they're only going to get better. Which is why I'm going to wrap up this 30 teams over/under preview with a resounding, unflinching OVER.
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