Who's No. 1 in fantasy bball: Kevin Durant or LeBron James?

(Illustration courtesy of Melvin Rodas)

In the real world, LeBron James is widely acknowledged as the best player in the NBA. In the fantasy world, James has been trumped year after year in the rankings by Kevin Durant, and on both Yahoo! and ESPN, Durant is once again listed as the No. 1 fantasy basketball option with LeBron coming in at No. 2. But is this still accurate? After all, LeBron James had a statistical renaissance last year, posting career-highs in field-goal percentage, three-point shooting and rebounding. And, lest we forget, this is LeBron James we're talking about. He's 14 months shy of being 30 and he might (emphasis on might) be the best player of all time, so, as scary as it is to imagine, it's possible we haven't yet seen LeBron at his peak.

So, let's take a look at LeBron and Durant's numbers and really answer the question. Who is more worth selecting with the top pick in a fantasy draft: Kevin Durant or LeBron James?

(Also, this comparison will be conducted with the admission that this is a first-world-problem when it comes to fantasy basketball. There's no wrong answer when it comes to selecting LeBron or Durant, as they're both spectacular, sure-fire options. And only the dude with the No. 1 pick has the luxury of getting to choose between them. But anyway...)

Here's what Kevin Durant and LeBron James' averages were last season:



As you can see, our two superstars put up extremely comparable numbers. Durant, by most mumbo-jumbo statistical calibrations, had the superior statistical season. But LeBron head-to-head beat Durant in five of the nine major fantasy categories. Truthfully though, they split because they more or less tied in rebounding, and in fact, Durant posted more rebounds during the course of the year because he played five more games than LeBron.

To better illustrate the differentials between the two players, here's what the margins in their numbers were with the rebounding category thrown out:

To clear this up, let's call Durant's block advantage an equal trade-off to LeBron's steals advantage and take away both categories. (It's only fair, since Durant had 0.1 more blocks than LeBron had steals, and we already removed a category that LeBron won by 0.1.) At last, we're left with this:

It essentially comes down to this: LeBron had a significantly better year in assists and field-goal percentage while getting just a few less turnovers, while Durant provided more points, more three's and absolutely dominated him in free-throw percentage, where he led the entire league. However, that free-throw percentage is also an equal trade-off to LeBron's field-goal percentage, when you consider that the number of free-throws attempted in a game isn't nearly as numerous as the number of field-goals attempted. In layman's terms, all things being the same, if LeBron and Durant attempted their normal allotment of free-throws and field-goals, LeBron would make one more field-goal and Durant would make one more free-throw.

Yes, Durant's free-throw differential was great enough to completely skew the comparison in an overall formula -- the same way that every year, Rajon Rondo and Dwight Howard are lowly-rated on the "Player Rater" because they suck at making free-throws. However, in a game-to-game, week-to-week basis, I would've rather owned LeBron James last year. (Gasp!) Durant scored more, but LeBron is a more consistent triple-double threat. When you can get almost three more assists per game from the small forward or even power forward position (because LeBron has dual-eligibility in those two spots), it gives you an incredible head-start in a much harder counting stat to win than points. That LeBron gets less turnovers was an added bonus.

(Illustration courtesy of Melvin Rodas)

However, that was last year. This year...

LeBron comes into the 2013-14 season in essentially the same situation as last year. So his numbers should be comparable to last year's, while probably being slightly better. Durant's, meanwhile, are going to jumble a little bit. Kevin Martin is gone and Russell Westbrook will be out for the first month, which means we can expect Durant's scoring to go up substantially; I'd guess above 30 per game. However, the absence of other options is going to hurt his assist numbers. His field-goal percentage should also take a drop, though it's hard not to see him shooting close to 50% (he's just that good).

Also, while I mentioned earlier that LeBron is only getting better, that's certainly true too of Durant. Last season, the Durantula posted career-highs in field-goal percentage, free-throw percentage, assists and steals. So you could easily make the case that instead of succumbing to the losses of Westbrook and Martin, Durant will elevate his game and put up even better numbers than he had last year -- helmed possibly by a much higher scoring average than LeBron's.

Still, I'll break from the general consensus in fantasy basketball and conclude, based on my own preferences, that I'd again rather own LeBron James. (Double gasp!) As great as Durant is, he's just not as awesome as LeBron in a category that's extremely difficult to compensate for. I'll gladly take the extra assists and higher field-goal percentage in return for a lower free-throw percentage and a few less three's.

But what do you think, dear reader? If you've read this far, I'm sure you've formed your own opinion by now. So, who would you select with the No. 1 pick? Does my shucking of the status quo leave you unimpressed? Leave a comment and let me know.