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| (Illustration courtesy of Maddison Bond) |
In the NBA, it doesn't matter how good you are. If you're not getting minutes, you're not going to put up a lot of stats. Opportunity and situation mean everything, and Asik's isn't one that you should invest in this season. (And if you don't believe me, take stock in the fact that Asik asked to be traded the second the Rockets brought Howard on board. If anyone could see the writing on the wall, it was him.)
What's interesting is that Asik's pre-draft ranking is quite generous on both ESPN (where he's ranked No. 80 among all fantasy options) and Yahoo! (where he's ranked No. 124). On both sites, he's listed ahead of Brandon Knight (ugh) and Victor Oladipo, and on ESPN, he's even rated ahead of Derrick Favors -- which I consider a desperate cry for help from whoever constructs the rankings on ESPN.
There are two hypothetical rationals for drafting Asik, neither of which I'm willing to jump on board with. The first would be that because Houston is incredibly weak at power forward, (where they only have Greg Smith and Donatas Motiejunas), it would make all the sense in the world for Asik to actually play alongside Dwight Howard. And sure enough, I imagine we'll see the two bigmen on the floor occasionally this season. HOWEVER, it's hard to see Asik playing more than 24 minutes a game in his bench role, especially since Chandler Parsons is capable of sliding to the four-spot at the end of games, and having two giants on the floor at the same time would damper the Rockets' ability to run up and down the court.
But even if Asik and Howard played side-by-side on a regular basis, that still doesn't mean Asik would have a good year statistically. Yeah, he put up great numbers last year when he was clearly the best rebounder on the team, but Dwight Howard is even better at grabbing boards than he is. ESPN projects Asik to average 9.8 rebounds per game this season, which I consider an impossibility. The fact of the matter is that Asik isn't going to be on the floor long enough, without Howard, to put up good numbers on a consistent basis.
Unless, of course, Howard suffers a serious injury or gets his minutes reduced due to his lingering back issues, which is the second rational for drafting Asik. If Howard were to go down, Asik would immediately assume the starting center spot and would go back to being a legitimate option. But that's a colossal 'if.' I, personally, don't like drafting lottery ticket options like Asik as opposed to someone who might not have as high a ceiling, but who can put up stats right away. Besides, Asik's ratios aren't all that good once you get beyond his rebounding numbers. Last year, he averaged 10.1 points, 0.9 assists, 0.6 steals and 1.1 blocks -- and that was when he was getting 30 minutes a night. In his new reduced role, Asik -- even in a best-case scenario -- is still going to offer weak averages in assists, steals and blocks. The only categories he can really help in will be field-goal percentage and rebounding. To me, that's not enough reward for rostering a back-up bench player who's going to see his numbers fall substantially in every area.
Am I guaranteeing that Dwight Howard won't slip on a banana peel three games into the season and break his hip? No, of course not. I can only gauge Asik's value on what I know right now, and what I know is that a back-up center struggling to get minutes shouldn't be on anyone's fantasy radar, especially over the likes of Oladipo, Knight and Favors. Bottom line: pass on him. There's a good chance whoever drafts him will dump him to the waiver wire at some point anyway.