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| (CP3, The Flash and Melo. Illustration courtesy of Mike Harrison/Nike) |
Now, I had considered doing what a lot of fantasy hoops "experts" do prior to the season, which is to compose a draft kit specifically outlining my own personal rankings of every NBA player. But I decided against this for two reasons. 1): I'm a lazy bastard, and as willing as I am to construct an extremely long article, meticulously organizing every player just seems like overkill; and 2): I kind of think it's a waste of time. I mean, when you're dealing with the unknowable, fluky world of fantasy basketball statistics, I find it semantic to worry so heavily about each players' respective ranking. Is Ricky Rubio the seventh best point guard in the league or the fourth best point guard? To me, the only thing that matters is where he's taken overall.
The only rankings that truly matter are the ones that Yahoo! is putting out there, because Yahoo! has the most popular fantasy basketball service around. So to me, a better usage of my time -- rather than constructing my own personal rankings on a see-through chalkboard, after weeks of ignoring my family and not tending to my facial hair -- would be to just evaluate the Yahoo! rankings. Which is exactly what I'm going to do.
Here's how it's going to work. The following players are listed in the order that they appear in a standard Yahoo! fantasy basketball league draft. I'm going to go through them, one by one, and tell you which guys are worth targeting and which are worth ignoring. (Because my word is law, damn it!) If I write a guy's name in green, that means I believe he has sleeper value -- AKA, I project him to have a better year than Yahoo! does; if I write a guy's name in red, that doesn't mean I don't think they're worth drafting. However, it means I think they're being overrated by Yahoo! and are not worth drafting that early in the draft. If I don't write a player's name in either green or red, it's because I think their Yahoo! ranking or is pretty much right on the money. Not too high, not too low.
So, let us begin...
1. Kevin Durant - SF (Thunder)
As I've already noted, I personally would rather own LeBron James over Kevin Durant. But it's not a statement that I make with a lot of confidence, because with Kevin Martin gone and Russell Westbrook out for the first month, Durant is primed to score a massive amount of points this year; it's been a while since the NBA has had such a prohibitive favorite to win the scoring title. Even if I'm right and LeBron winds up having a better year, it would only be by a fraction. Durant is an absolute juggernaut who's only getting better, and if you're fortunate enough to get to choose between him and LeBron, you really can't go wrong.
2. LeBron James - SF/PF (Heat)
Why do I like LeBron James so much? Well for one, as hard as it is to believe, he was statistically just as good a three-point shooter as Durant last year, and I firmly expect him to improve his free-throw shooting as a result. He's the only guy in the NBA who has a legitimate shot to put up a triple-double every time he steps on the floor, and -- and this matters -- he has power forward eligibility, something Durant doesn't have and something that makes him all the more appealing a superstar to build around. At the end of the day, I firmly hold in my heart that LeBron James is the best basketball player of our generation, and if I ever had the chance to take him, I'd have a very, very difficult time passing on him, even if Durant was still on the board.
3. James Harden - SG/SF (Rockets)
With Dwight Howard around, it's not reasonable to expect Harden to score 25.9 a game like he did last year. But who cares? Harden was an absolute monster last season, posting elite numbers in every single category except maybe field-goal percentage (43.8%). And you know what? With Howard around to free up shot attempts, expect Harden to shoot even better this season. The best part is that he has dual eligibility, making him, Durant and LeBron the only small forwards in the league capable of producing 25-5-5 numbers.
4. Chris Paul - PG (Clippers)
When you draft CP3, you know what you're going to get: great averages, elite assists, elite steals and a decent scoring average. Unfortunately, playing alongside Blake Griffin hasn't quite exploded his numbers like some predicted when he first got to L.A. a few years ago. Is he still a great player? Absolutely. But at this stage in his career, his best NBA seasons are a few years behind him. There's nothing that should deter you from taking him if you're inclined, but unlike most of the guys in the top ten, he's essentially maxed out his statistical prowess. So as great as he is, a sleeper he is not.
5. Stephen Curry - PG/SG (Warriors)
If I had actually gone ahead and done a draft kit, I would've listed Curry ahead of Paul and Harden as the third best player in the NBA. He averaged 23 points, 7 assists and 4 boards last season, which by itself puts him in the class of the two aforementioned guards. To me though, he separates himself in two distinct ways. The first is that by hitting a daunting 3.5 three's per game last year, Curry proved that he can single-handedly win you the three-point category, and do it while putting up an elite-level free-throw percentage. The second is that he has shooting guard eligibility, which is a bonus that I cannot emphasize enough. It's very, very difficult to find a shooting guard who produces in assists, let alone one that produces 7 of them a game, let alone one that also scores 20 a game and hits 3.5 three's a contest. It should be the prerogative of fantasy owners to have as many point guard-type players on their roster as possible, and there's no better prototype of such a player than Steph Curry. For the love of god, draft him.
6. Kyrie Irving - PG (Cavaliers)
When he's healthy, Kyrie Irving is one of the most dynamic fantasy options in the NBA. His statistics are incredibly similar to one Mr. James Harden, and considering that Irving has a much better team around him than he had last year -- with Andrew Bynum, Anthony Bennett and a healthy Anderson Varejao -- it'd be reasonable to expect Irving to dramatically improve on his assist average, which would actually make him more valuable than Harden. The problem is that Irving is perennially-injured. He missed almost all of his college games, he missed 15 games in 2012 and 22 a year ago. So while his talent and his potential are undeniable, his propensity to get hurt devalues him ever so slightly.
7. Kevin Love - PF/C (Timberwolves)
You know, I could say the same thing about about Kevin Love that I just did about Irving. Love is an unstoppable monster when he's healthy. Just two years ago, he was averaging 26 points and 13 rebounds a game, while making 1.9 three's per game and hitting 82% of this free-throws. And keep in mind that that was while having center eligibility. The problem with Love is two-fold. He's hurt all the time, and as impressive as most of his stats are, he's actually below-average in steals and blocks. If you told me that Kevin Love could play all 82 games, put up the numbers that he did when he was healthy, and could average 1 steal and a 1 block a night, I'd tell you that you could make a legitimate argument that Love would be the best option in all of fantasy basketball. Unfortunately, you can't teach health. He's definitely worth the risk, but it's anyone's guess as to if it'll pay off or not.
8. Paul George - SG/SF (Pacers)
It's with Paul George at No. 8 that the draft talent goes down a tier, which isn't to say that George is a bad player. Far from the contrary. There isn't a better rebounding option at shooting guard, he makes a ton of three's, he even produces a surprising amount of assists (4.1 last year), and he's only 23 years old, so he's certainly bound to improve. But George isn't nearly the offensive force that some of the others on this list are. Despite his 6-8 frame, he still hasn't developed a very good post game, so at the moment he's strictly a jump-shooter -- which explains why he only shot 41.9% from the field a year ago. And while he's clearly the alpha dog on the Pacers' roster, the return of Danny Granger could squelch his ability to break out in the scoring column on a nightly basis. George is undoubtedly a very good player, but he's not someone you should necessarily be encouraged to build around as opposed to the first seven players.
9. Carmelo Anthony - SF/PF (Knicks)
Carmelo Anthony is excellent at what he does best. He's routinely one of the league's leading scorers, he hits a good amount of three's and he'll even chip in with 7 rebounds a night. The problem with Melo is that he's very weak in all his other categories. His assist average is pathetic, he rarely helps in steals and blocks, and he's often such a shot-chucker that he's capable of steering your team's field-goal percentage straight into the ground when he's having an off week. However, when he's hot he's one of the best players in the NBA, and I'd be remiss if I didn't mention that Melo is frequently fantastic in the final weeks of the year, when the fantasy basketball playoffs are taking place. He's quite frustrating at times, but he's quite fantastic when he's hitting those ridiculous isolation shots of his, which happens quite frequently when it most matters in the fantasy season.
10. Marc Gasol - C (Grizzlies)
Once a throw-in in a trade for his brother that was considered a complete joke, Marc Gasol is now widely considered the best center in the NBA. Averaging 14 points and 8 rebounds a game, Gasol isn't the 20-and-10 double-double monster that would make him one of the first five picks off the board. But he's still fantastic. He gets a steal and 1.7 blocks a night, his assist average (4 per game) is tremendous for center, as too is his free-throw shooting, which peaked last year at 85%. He's one of the only bigmen in the entire league who will help you in field-goal percentage, rebounds and blocks without hurting you in free-throw percentage. Though his scoring isn't as robust as some other players, he's without a doubt the most complete fantasy center in the game right now.
11. LaMarcus Aldridge - PF/C (Blazers)
Like I said, if you want the best all-around center in the league, Gasol is your man. But if you're willing to endure minor dips in assists, blocks, steals and free-throw percentage, then LaMarcus Aldridge is your huckleberry. His 21-and-9 average is certainly more palatable than Gasol's, and may by itself sway owners to pluck him over his Memphis counterpart in spite of what Gasol contributes in other categories. Aldridge is quite a consistent player and has never dealt with a prolonged stretch of injuries, unlike a lot of bigmen. He's kind of like the Chris Paul of power forwards. He's pretty much maxed out how good he can be on a night-to-night basis, but he's still pretty damn good.
12. Al Jefferson - PF/C (Bobcats)
There's one and only one reason why Al Jefferson is going to be with the pitiful Charlotte Bobcats for one measly season: so he can pile up as many stats as he can to boost his free-agent appeal when he inevitably leaves town for greener pastures. His numbers over the last few years have been eerily-similar to Aldridge's, while being slightly worse in the scoring category. Playing amongst the likes of Bismack Biyombo and Jannero Pargo can only help with that, but not to the degree that I think a lot of people are predicting. Keep in mind that Jefferson didn't exactly have a lot of talent around him in Utah either, and if anything, Kemba Walker is much more of a threat to poach touches from him than Paul Millsap was because he'll have the ball so much more. Jefferson is certainly worth owning at this spot, but don't reach for him with the expectation that he'll have some crazy Kevin Love-type explosion just because he's on what was maybe the worst team in NBA history just two seasons ago.
13. Deron Williams - PG (Nets)
Usually, I'm not a giant fan of Deron Williams. I think he's a fantastic talent, and there isn't a point guard I'd more want with the ball at the end of a game. But he seems to keep getting injured -- often at the most inopportune time of the year. And for all the promise the Nets had last season, Williams only tallied 7.7 assists per game, which was his lowest average in seven years. But now, with Paul Pierce, Kevin Garnett and Jason Terry around him, Williams has dramatically better options to dish it to. (Kris Humphries, Gerald Wallace and Reggie Evans are known for many things, but hitting jump shots isn't one of them.) If he can elevate his assists to around 10 per game, while maintaining the 2.2 three's he hit per contest a year ago, Williams could once again establish himself as a point guard on par with Paul. But considering the ages of everyone around him, and how injury-prone he is himself, it's by no means a safe bet.
14. Derrick Rose - PG (Bulls)
I am all in on #TheReturn, even though I firmly believe that #TheReturn should have happened a friggin' year ago, when the dude was first cleared to play and when he could have helped out the Bulls in the playoffs, even for only a few minutes. But that's not important right now. What matters is that Rose has been away from the court for so long, and has had so much time to work back from his injury, that I have all the faith in the world that he's going to be as fast and athletic as he was two years ago. It remains to be seen if Rose can get his assist average above the 7.9 per game it was in 2012, but even if he doesn't, a fully healthy D-Rose -- a point guard capable of averaging 25 a game -- is a complete steal at the No. 14 pick, which is why in very few drafts will he actually last that long.
15. Anthony Davis - PF/C (Pelicans)
I was very, very tempted to list Davis as a sleeper, but he's ranked so high already on Yahoo! that I just couldn't do it. Not when the 14 previous guys are so damn consistent, and not when Davis is still very much an unproven commodity. What we know about him is that he has a tremendous fantasy ceiling; with his 7-3 wingspan, Davis has the potential to be a more refined version of JaVale McGee, only without the cringing bone-headed mistakes and occasional decisions to attempt a lay-up from 20 feet away. He'll be a dynamite option from his athleticism alone, but until we see him develop a go-to game, he's not quite worthy of a first-round pick.
16. Al Horford - PF/C (Hawks)
In his first season without Joe Johnson hogging the ball, Horford was excellent, posting career-highs in points, rebounds, steals and minutes. And now that Josh Smith is no longer in the picture either, Horford is in prime condition to have an even better season. Sure, a healthy Lou Williams could possibly assume Johnson's old ball-hogging duties, but it wouldn't be by design. For the first time in his career, Horford is the undisputed go-to guy on the Hawks, and while Davis will almost universally get picked ahead of Horford in drafts, Horford is far more likely to post a 20-and-10 statline. Yes, drafting him may force you to pay attention to the Atlanta Hawks -- which is something no one in their right mind is eager to do. But hey, if he posts another breakout season, who can complain?
17. Serge Ibaka - PF/C (Thunder)
As you're about to find out, I'm not keen on appointing role players to my fantasy team. But Ibaka is the exception to the rule. He's the best shot-blocker in the NBA, sure, and if that's all he was, his name would have been written in red ink. However, Ibaka has a world of talent and can even hit a three-pointer once in a while. It's him, and not Durant, who I think will pay the most dividends from Kevin Martin's departure and Westbrook's injury; no, he doesn't have much of an offensive game to speak of, but with teams likely to double-team Durant more than ever before, I firmly expect Ibaka to get more wide-open shots than he's ever had in his life.
18. Nicolas Batum - SG/SF (Blazers)
So here's the thing: is Nicolas Batum a good player? Sure he is! In fact, last season he produced an absolutely fantastic season out of thin air, scoring 14.3 PPG to go with 5.6 rebounds, 2.3 three's and -- craziest of all -- 4.9 assists per game, which was 3.4 more than his previous career high. But do I want him? Hell no. At least, not when he's this highly ranked. Lost in all of his numbers was the fact that he got an insane 38.5 minutes per game last year (which, for context, was more than even LeBron got per game), thanks in large part to the futility of the Blazers' bench. The Blazers' bench is substantially better than it was a year ago, but even if it wasn't, I look at last year's statistics as an unsustainable bubble. Batum, after all, is just a role player, and he may be a damn good role player. But at some point, those minutes and those stats are going to come back down to earth, and I don't want to own him when it happens.
19. John Wall - PG (Wizards)
If John Wall had sturdy legs, or even slightly slower legs, I could easily predict a breakout season for him. Wall's biggest concern has never been outside shooting. I mean, yeah, he's a pretty terrible shooter, but he almost never shoots an outside shot unless he's completely unguarded -- ala Rajon Rondo. No, his issue has always been that he doesn't know how to slow down; in his first three seasons, Wall has made a habit out of racing to the basket and finding himself wide-open, only to blow the lay-up because he doesn't know how to stop himself. When it hasn't been about running too fast, it's just been about being able to walk. Wall missed 33 games last year and is poised to forever be in danger of stepping on someone's foot, rolling an ankle and missing a month's worth of action. The other problem is that he is an absolutely porous three-point shooter, and it's very hard to eagerly recommend a guard who's useless in a category that no guard should ever be useless in. In short, I see Wall as a fringe guy who still has a ton of building to do. For me, there's not enough equity there for me to seriously consider him ahead of the draft, especially because of the guy who's waiting right behind him...
20. Ricky Rubio - PG (Timberwolves)
Like Wall, Ricky Rubio is a constant question mark because of his inability to stay healthy for more than a couple weeks. But unlike Wall, Rubio just needs to stay healthy in order to be a fantasy beast. His talent is unquestionable, and if he and the rest of his teammates can stay un-mangled for at least two-thirds of the year, Rubio could easily average 10 assists a game. He's already one of the best in the league at stealing the ball, his free-throw percentage is decent and he's not incapable of knocking down a three. The problem is his field-goal percentage, which was a truly woeful 35.9% during the course of two seasons. I mean, there's no beating around the bush: he is absolutely terrible at putting the ball in the basket. However, and perhaps this is me putting blind faith in someone who doesn't deserve it, I'll be stunned if Rubio doesn't become a substantially better shooter in a very short amount of time. The dude is such a masterful ball-handler, and is so good at getting to the lane, that all he has to is forever stave off outside shooting -- again, ala Rondo -- and he can bring that percentage up to something manageable. The stats may not scream breakout, but the talent does, and at some point the talent is going to catch up to him.
21. Dwyane Wade - PG/SG (Heat)
There isn't a better afterthought in the NBA than D-Wade. Derided for a full a year about how much he's slowing down, how LeBron may eventually choose to abandon him, and how weak he looked in the playoffs was that Wade had a silently phenomenal season in 2013. He posted 21-5-5 averages with 2 steals, a block and a three per game, along with 52% shooting from the floor. Those are outstanding numbers, and while he certainly looked like he was running at half-speed during the postseason, I'd attribute that more to an injury than to old age. Are his best years behind him? Yeah. But at 31, it's not like he has a foot in the grave or anything. Maybe draft him with an inkling more of hesitation than you normally would, but Wade is still too good to pass up if you're in need of a shooting guard.
22. Dirk Nowitzki - PF (Mavericks)
Dirk Nowitzki is a great, great Hall of Fame talent, but there are factors working against him now that make him an undesirable draft choice when he's ranked this highly. He's 35 years old and is at last starting to decompose due to age and injuries. Last year, he appeared in only 53 games and looked dreadful in all of them, posting his lowest scoring average since the turn of the century. And now, he has to wrestle the ball away from newly-signed free-agent Monta Ellis, who is perhaps the most notorious ball hog in the entire league. Then factor in that the rest of Dirk's numbers have been steadily declining for years, from his assists to his reboundsto his steals to the number of times he gets to the line, and it becomes clear that this is a player you should let someone else deal with on draft day.
23. Kawhi Leonard - SG/SF (Spurs)
It's not lost on me why Kawhi Leonard is ranked this high. After an encouraging 2013 regular season, Leonard was fantastic in the postseason, producing 13.5 points and 9 rebounds per game -- numbers that would be fantastic for a shooting guard in fantasy basketball. And because he's only 22, it's easy to connect the dots and assume that Leonard will maintain his value into this regular season. Consider me skeptical, however. With the big three of Duncan, Parker and Ginobili still breathing, Leonard is still just the fourth option on offense, and while those postseason numbers were nice, they came while he was playing 37 minutes a night -- which is a number he won't come close to approaching in the regular season. Ultimately, I'm not fond of role players in fantasy, especially when they're ranked this early in the draft. (Seriously, we haven't even sniffed Kobe Bryant yet, and on the top of your head, who would you rather own this year: Kawhi Leonard or Kobe Bryant? It's Kobe by a landslide.) But I especially don't want any part of a role player on the Spurs, who not only have a habit of producing capable role players out of thin air, but their coach likes to frequently screw over fantasy owners by randomly benching their best players late in the year. Even if Leonard takes the next step in his development, I still wouldn't want to put the life of my fantasy team in the hands of Greg "I-dont-care-about-stats" Popavich.
24. Larry Sanders - PF/C (Bucks)
I briefly interrupt the sea of red ink to mention Larry Sanders, a role player who I actually approve of quite earnestly. Last year, Sanders broke onto the scene for the Bucks by essentially averaging 10 points, 10 rebounds and 3 blocks a night, and he did it while only playing 27 minutes per game. With Brandon Jennings and Monta Ellis exiled, Sanders -- who was just awarded a four-year, $44 million contract -- is destined to get a huge uptick in playing time, which can only bode well for his already impressive fantasy line. A 12-11-3.5 line isn't unreasonable.
25. Nikola Vucevic - PF/C (Magic)
Last year, Vucevic put up some rather glorious numbers for the worst team in the NBA. In 77 games, Vucevic averaged 13 points, 12 rebounds and a block in 33 minutes a night, and it's possible that Vucevic could again put up good numbers considering he's still on the most talent-bereft team in the entire league. But I don't want any part of him. His stats are pure, 100% fool's gold mined from the weakness of everyone around him. I realize that you're not supposed to look a gift horse in the mouth when it comes to fantasy basketball, but in this instance, where his numbers are sooooooooo obviously inflated, I can't possibly recommend him -- especially when Larry Sanders is right in front of him and Dwight Howard and Tyson Chandler are well behind him. Even if I trusted Vucevic, he's not that good a shot-blocker and is equally weak in assists, steals and free-throw percentage. If you want to buy into his fake stats, knock yourself out. But know that they're entirely dependent on the situation he's landed himself in and that the tiniest alteration to the team could rupture his value irreparably. You have been warned.
To Be Continued: Players 26-50...
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