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| (Will Howard play like Superman this year? Illustration courtesy of Art Mobb) |
26. Rudy Gay - SF/PF (Raptors)
Gay is a solid if unspectacular fantasy option. Even after getting traded from Memphis to Toronto, Gay's numbers stayed more or less the same, and he's once again a lock for 20 points, 6 rebounds, a block, a three and 1.5 steals a game on a fairly weak Raptors lineup. What makes Gay a very appealing player to own in fantasy is that after only a couple rounds, it becomes very difficult to find small forwards who are worth unconditionally starting every time out. In fact, after Gay, there only two other small forwards listed in the top 50 of Yahoo's rankings, making Gay a very tantalizing option for anyone who doesn't already own LeBron, Durant, Carmelo, Harden, George, or even Nicolas Batum or (god help me) Kawhi Leonard.
27. Mike Conley - PG (Grizzlies)
Mike Conley is an imperfect point guard who happens to be in a fantastic fantasy situation. He's not a great passer, but because he gets to feed the ball to the best duo of bigmen in the NBA -- Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol -- he's going to get assists anyway. And with the aforementioned Rudy Gay no longer in the picture, Conley gets to touch the ball as much as he wants. His assist average has never really fluctuated, even after the Gay trade, so don't expect him to get more than 6 a game, which is just average for a point guard. But he did average about 16 points per game following that trade and is one of the best in the NBA at stealing the ball, so while he won't blow you away with his numbers, he's still going to provide a solid statline on a consistent basis.
28. Pau Gasol - PF/C (Lakers)
It wasn't that long ago that Gasol was considered one of the best fantasy centers in the NBA. Then Dwight Howard joined the Lakers and Gasol was reduced to being a mere jump-shooter, which caused his stats to suffer immensely. Now that Howard is out of the picture, Gasol goes right back to being an elite fantasy play, especially with Kobe Bryant's uncertain status following his Achilles injury. And, let's not forget that he's still a part of Mike D'Antoni's high-octane run-and-gun offense and is still going to receive passes from Steve Nash, who's still an excellent distributor -- even if he happens to be older than Methuselah. Expect a resurgent year from the Spaniard.
29. Joakim Noah - PF/C (Bulls)
Here's a perfect example why you shouldn't for one second consider Nikola Vucevic with the 25th pick in the draft. Why should you own Vucevic, who's stats aren't even that authentic, when you can have someone like Noah -- who puts up just as many points, just as many rebounds, shoots a better free-throw percentage, gets twice as many blocks, gets more steals and who contributed 4 assists a game last year? That's a rhetorical question, folks. Noah's assists are going to go down in conjunction with D-Rose's return, but the rest of his game is completely legit. He's one of the best rebounders in the league and is getting better year to year. Invest with confidence.
30. Tim Duncan - PF/C (Spurs)
Duncan is someone who I personally have little interest in owning, just because he'll turn 38 this year and plays for a coach who likes to randomly bench guys when you least expect it, which is quite a nuisance as far as fantasy is concerned. But that's not me doubting any numbers that Duncan puts up. Far from the contrary. Duncan, even in his advanced, geriatric age, is fantastic every time he's on the court, and because his fundamental skill-set isn't dependent on him being super athletic, I imagine he'll be worth owning even when he's 39 or 40. Still, I prefer young players who have the potential to greatly exceed their preseason ranking, which is why ole graybeard Duncan just doesn't do it for me. Not when he's still listed this high.
31. Chris Bosh - PF/C (Heat)
The best thing I can say about Bosh is that he's safe. You know you're going to get solid stats from him -- around 16 points and 7 rebounds a game with a good field-goal percentage, a good free-throw percentage and an acceptable amount of blocks and steals. Plus, he's pretty reliable when it comes to staying healthy. Unfortunately, playing alongside LeBron and Wade is a permanent statistical handicap that shouldn't be overlooked. He won't hurt you in any category, which is a plus, but his numbers have actually gone done the more accustomed he's gotten to playing alongside his superstar teammates. Like with small forwards, it gets tricky finding a useful center after awhile, so you shouldn't be afraid to own Bosh if you're desperate for a C. But at the same time, it might not hurt to hunt for a bigmen who doesn't happen to be sharing the spotlight with LeBron James and Dwyane Wade.
32. Brook Lopez - C (Nets)
Brook Lopez is a fantasy enigma. Some statisticians have found that Lopez is actually quite good at collecting rebounding opportunities that are right in front of him, but that for whatever reason he doesn't get in position to grab enough of them. Fantasy analysts are less apologetic towards him because his rebounding numbers, quite frankly, suck royally. He's a fantastic talent, averaging 19 points and 2 blocks last year while shooting a respectable 75% from the line. But his 6.9 rebounds per game leaves something to be desired, and with Kevin Garnett now playing beside him, don't expect Lopez to come anywhere close to averaging a double-double. He's a nice player who's incapable of ascending the fantasy ranks until he manages to fix his rebound affliction.
33. Ty Lawson - PG (Nuggets)
Andre Iguodala is gone, which means that Lawson becomes the undisputed ball-handler on the Denver Nuggets. And with coach George Karl out of the picture, Lawson could have the freedom he needs to build upon his impressive numbers and transcend into an All-Star. I love Lawson's numbers. He's a career 49% shooter from the floor and he shoots 36% from downtown, which are fantastic averages for a scoring point guard. His averages in steals, three's and assists are unremarkable, but they're not terrible. If Lawson gets 37 to 38 minutes a night (which is doable, even with the aging Andre Miller breathing down his neck), there's all the reason in the world to expect a breakout from him. Either way, I'm unconditionally on board with a point guard who can hit half of his shots and still knock down three's on a regular basis. Go get him, folks.
34. Tony Parker - PG (Spurs)
Like his other San Antonio cohorts, you know what you're getting from the aging Tony Parker: 18 to 20 points per game, 7 assists, and a fantastic 50% field-goal percentage. Parker even raised his free-throw percentage to a career-high clip of 85% last year. However, he doesn't hit three's and he doesn't get a lot of steals, so he's far from a perfect option at point guard. At 31, he's not nearly as ancient as you might have thought and is perfectly capable of duplicating his numbers from a year ago, or even improving on them in some minor way. Nonetheless, he's not for me. As helpful as he is in most categories, I'm not keen on sacrificing three-pointers for him. But hey, that's just me.
35. Russell Westbook - PG (Thunder)
Out for the first 4-6 weeks of the season, Westbrook is an interesting player to consider. On the one hand, he's a top 10 fantasy option when he's healthy, and if he comes back and plays like he did a year ago, then it'd be an absolute steal to nab him in the third round -- even if it meant waiting a month for him to return. However, players are rarely the same when they're returning from a major injury like he is, and even if they do put up decent numbers, it isn't always worth being down a man for the first few weeks of the season. Plus, these guys who come back are often so fragile that they frequently re-injure themselves all over again, making the whole effort of waiting for them a complete waste of time. (Examples: Kevin Love, Amar'e Stoudemire, Brook Lopez.) My prerogative is to have my roster be at full-strength as much as humanly possible, which is why I'm steering clear of Westbrook this season. If he does great then whatever, but I'll let someone else be the guinea pig for such an uncertain draft choice.
36. Paul Millsap - PF (Hawks)
Now that he's severed ties with the Utah Jazz, where he had to share time with Al Jefferson and Derrick Favors, Paul Millsap is widely acknowledged to be a fantasy sleeper for the 2013-14 season. However, I don't buy it. I like Millsap and his game; I think he can put up 16 points and 8 rebounds a night with good averages, a block and a steal a night. THAT BEING SAID, Al Horford is just as good as Al Jefferson and is still the Hawk's starting center. Yes, Millsap is going to see his stats rise comfortably from a year ago, and he's probably worth drafting here. But don't expect him to suddenly evolve into a superstar, not when he continues to be the second-best bigman on his own team.
37. Damian Lillard - PG (Blazers)
Lillard is a blossoming fantasy superstar. In his first season, Lillard tallied 19 points, 6.5 assists and 2 three's a game -- numbers suggesting that in only a few years, we could be looking at one of the best point guards in the NBA. And he should be fantastic yet again in his sophomore year. However, with the Blazers' addition of Mo Williams, it's extremely unlikely that Lillard will equal last year's insane total of 38.6 minutes a night. And while most of his game is rock solid, he could afford to improve on his 0.9 steals per game, and his 42.9% shooting leaves something to be desired. Lillard is going to be great this year, but when you factor in a likely minutes reduction and that the rest of the Blazers' roster is greatly improved from a year ago, it's hard to see his numbers improving to such a degree that he deserves sleeper status, though I'd still rather own him than Tony Parker.
38. Josh Smith - SF/PF (Pistons)
For the first time in my life, I want Josh Smith on my fantasy team. Ironically, it happens when it seems like a lot of people have finally given up on him. In Atlanta, I imagine a lot of fantasy gurus had the idea that he would resolve his offensive deficiencies and establish himself as an elite fantasy monster. But that dream died once it became clear that he's horrendous at shooting the ball, and now that he has to share the spotlight with Brandon Jennings and Greg Monroe in Detroit, it's hard to see Smith scoring more than 16 a game. But so what? He's still one of the most diverse fantasy options in the game, capable of contributing in every single category. Just last year, he averaged 17.5 points, 8.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 1.8 blocks and a steal per game, and even if his stats dip slightly now that's in the motor city, I still expect him to produce universally-better numbers than Kawhi Leonard. The fact that he's listed 15 slots below Leonard makes him all the more worth targeting.
39. Kemba Walker - PG (Bobcats)
Kemba Walker passes the eye test. He can hit tough, contested outside shots, he hauls in a good amount of rebounds and steals, and he's playing for a team that has no excuse not to throw him out there as much as humanly possible. The problem is that he shoots just a little too many of those contested shots, and even if he has to ease off the gas pedal now that Al Jefferson is in town, it'll likely come at the cost of his scoring average. Either way, he's the beneficiary of being on an extremely pathetic roster, and while the roster still stinks and while he may be talented, he's not someone you should be jumping out of your seat to claim on draft day. He's a player who's numbers are going to go down the more the team improves, which is the ultimate sign of someone who isn't quite as good as his stats may indicate. Wait for him to get passed up a few times before considering him.
40. Monta Ellis - PG/SG (Mavericks)
I don't know what happened to Monta Ellis. The dude is one of the absolute best at hitting contested lay-ups, and in his early years with the Warriors, he steered clear of the three-point line and shot a fantastic percentage. But something's happened to him. The more his career has progressed, the more of a ball hog he's become, to the extent that he may just have the worst shot selection in the NBA. In 2008, this dude was shooting 53.1% from the floor and averaging 20 a game because he was only taking 0.6 three's a night. Last year, he attempted 4 three's a night, shot 41.6% from the floor and averaged only 19 a night. (What a shame.) If someone on Dallas could slap the hell out of him and bring him back to his Golden State sensibilities, Monta could honestly flirt with being a first round pick, because he's quite useful in a multitude of categories, and his dual eligibility is certainly appealing. At the moment though, drafting him means living with his putrid shooting percentage, which may not be worth it for a lot of owners.
41. Brandon Jennings - PG (Pistons)
As of me writing this, Jennings is listed at No. 41 on Yahoo!. However, because he has an impacted wisdom tooth, Jennings is going to miss the first three weeks of the year and is likely to take a drop in the Yahoo! rankings, which makes putting his name in red a fairly easy deicision. Now, the silver lining to this injury is that it doesn't affect his arms or legs, so when he does return, there's no reason to think he won't be at full strength. Even if he wasn't hurt, I still wouldn't into taking Jennings this early in the draft. His field-goal shooting (40% last year) is so bad that Monta Ellis can actually look down at him, and whereas Ellis' numbers are at least palatable because you can use him as a shooting guard, Jennings lacks that luxury. For his career, he only averages 5.7 assists a game, which is weak for a point guard, and it's worth noting that between Chauncey Billups, Will Bynum and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, it's not like the Pistons don't have a cadre of guards to fill his place. So even when Jennings comes back, he's going to have to fight to eek out the 36 minutes he got per game a year ago. In summation, don't wait three weeks for a guy who only makes four out of every 10 shots. It's just not worth it.
42. DeMarcus Cousins - PF/C (Kings)
Cousins' raw ability is fantastic, and every now and then you'll see glimpses of absolute brilliance from him, like at home against the Celtics last year, when he posted a triple-double. The problem with Cousins is that he's an erratic individual who's constantly fighting with the coaching staff, getting into trouble, getting himself suspended for no good reason, and generally being a pain in the ass to own. The result of that problem is that he's woefully inconsistent; just two games prior to his triple-double, he had a 9-point, 5-rebound game where he went 4-9 from the field. Two games before that, he shot 1-10, and two games before that he shot 3-12. Cousins is a nightly double-double force who, every once in a while, shows us how good he could truly be if he had his head on straight. Unfortunately, there's not enough evidence to suggest that he's ready to become a 20-and-10 guy. He's definitely worth owning, but don't expect that All-Star season just yet.
43. Dwight Howard - C (Rockets)
Ooh la la. Dwight Howard, long considered one of the best fantasy options in the game, is now lingering as a fourth-round pick? Hell yeah he's a sleeper! I mean, here's the thing with Howard. You have to know ahead of time if he's someone you'd want on your team, because having him means you will never, ever win free-throw percentage. Ever. (Okay, mostly ever.) And now that he's sharing space with James Harden and Jeremy Lin, he probably isn't going to improve on his 17.1 scoring average from a year ago. Big whoop, I say. Howard is dominant in three crucial statistical categories: rebounds, blocks and field-goal percentage, and I'd be more than happy to sack one category if it meant securing three separate ones. I would honestly draft a much-healthier Dwight Howard if he was ranked as high as No. 10 overall. That he's listed all the way in the 40's makes him, to me, the absolute biggest sleeper of the 2013-14 season. Need I say more?
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| (Illustration courtesy of Art Mobb) |
If Kobe had a problem with ESPN ranking him as the 25th best player in the NBA, I can't imagine how he feels being listed as the 44th best fantasy basketball option by Yahoo! When I first saw this ranking, the screaming word "Sleeper!" popped into my head. I have so much in faith in Kobe Bryant's competitive drive that I'm convinced he can play well through any injury, no matter how old he is, no matter who his teammates are. The problem is that he has to get on the court first, and at the moment, there's no indication when that's going to happen. He's so good that even if he missed the first couple weeks of the year, he'd still probably be worth taking in the fourth round. But will it be two weeks? Will it be a month? Two months? If you're like me, you have a natural inclination to stay away from anyone who could be useless for a prolonged period of time, even if that person happens to be Kobe Bryant. I'm just not into babysitting fantasy players. So if you want him, you can have him. And maybe it'll work out for you. I, however, am far more interested in guys who can produce for me right now, with no strings attached.
45. Ersan Ilyasova - SF/PF (Bucks)
Okay, so a year ago Ilyasova was considered a very trendy sleeper pick. Why? Because every now and then he'd explode and put up a crazy statline, like on February 19, 2012, when he put up 29 points and 25 rebounds against the then New Jersey Nets. But something curious happened. Last year, Ilyasova averaged 27.6 minutes a game, which was exactly the amount of minutes he received in 2012. And he had the same damn year! In fact, it was even a slightly worse year because his rebounding dropped from 8.8 a game to 7.1. So fast forward to today, and once again Ilyasova is ranked highly on Yahoo!, clearly because the Bucks parted ways with Jennings and Ellis, which leads some to believe that Ilyasova will have a spectacular season in their wake. But that's pure nonsense. There are some hardcore heavy-hitters in the 40's -- guys like Howard and Lee and Griffin and Cousins who put up tangible numbers every single night. Using a fourth-round pick on a wishy-washy, inconsistent small forward who doesn't have much of an offensive game is insane. He's a complimentary player and nothing more; anyone thinking otherwise isn't living in the real world. You probably weren't thinking of taking Ilyasova this high in the draft anyway, but just in case you were unfamiliar with fantasy basketball, steer clear of Ersan Ilyasova in the fourth round! That is all.
46. Eric Bledsoe - PG/SG (Clippers)
Freed from the statistical shackles that come with being Chris Paul's backup, Eric Bledsoe now finds himself in Phoenix, where could very easily put up wonderfully inflated digits. I have no doubt that Bledsoe will have a good year. In Los Angeles, he showed glimpses of how he good he can be in the very limited playing time he received, and this summer, teammate Gordan Dragic bestowed the ultimate compliment upon on him by calling him "mini LeBron James." Now, is he going to play like LeBron James for the Suns this year? No. But he is a very athletic player who's capable of putting up good assists and rebounds from the shooting guard position. I don't necessarily see the star potential in him that others do; last year, he averaged 14 points, 5 rebounds and 5 assists in 12 starts, which, while solid, aren't numbers that lead me to consider him a future superstar or anything. On the assumption that he puts up 16-5-5 this year, I fully endorse taking him in the middle of the fourth round, though I doubt he'll ever be much more than a good player on a bad team.
47. Roy Hibbert - C (Pacers)
Hibbert is a rather unusual player from a fantasy perspective. The 7-2 center is a consistent lock for 11 or 12 points, 2 blocks and 8 rebounds a game, but despite his imposing height, Hibbert is actually bad from the field. At no point in his career has he shot over 50% and last year his field-goal percentage dropped to 44%, which is a confoundingly-low number for someone who's only getting touches when he's near the basket. His ability to swat shots make him quite desirable; over the next 150 players on the Yahoo! rankings, only JaVale McGee finished within 50 blocks of Hibbert, so he's still quite useful to own, offensive inconsistency aside. Still, he's not nearly the night-in-and-night-out beast that we'd like him to be, and the fact that you have to sacrifice field-goal percentage from the center position makes him -- while unworthy of being ignored -- a hard sell nonetheless.
48. David Lee - PF/C (Warriors)
Recouped from last year's hip injury, David Lee is healthy and should have no trouble in stepping right in as a double-double machine for the Golden State Warriors. With the addition of Andre Iguodala, the Warriors suddenly have a lot of cooks in the kitchen, so Lee probably won't equal last year's average of 18.5 points per game. Either way, he gets a ton of assists for a power forward (3.5 per game) and he's a consistent 80% foul-shooter, which are a rarity for big guys in the NBA. His one weakness comes in the blocks category, where he's almost useless (only 0.3 per game last year). Still, he's a plus-contributor in most of the other categories, so if you're in need of a big-time rebounder at this stage in the draft, look no further.
49. Blake Griffin - PF (Clippers)
When Chris Paul joined the Clippers, one might've imagined that Blake Griffin -- who averaged 22.5 points and 12.1 rebounds in his rookie year -- would reach a new statistical plateau and assert himself as maybe the best power forward in the NBA. Well, Griffin's numbers have actually gone down each year since his rookie season, and last year's rates of 18 points and 8.3 rebounds suggest that his gaudy numbers only occured because there was no one else around him. He still has a ton potential that will occasionally burst to the surface in the form of a crazy tomahawk dunk. But he's just as mediocre a free-throw shooter (66%) as he was in his rookie year and he still doesn't block a lot of shots. With evidence suggesting that he's reached a statistical stagnation, he's not worth taking over the more consistent, polished David Lee -- even though his talent easily exceeds his.
50. David West - PF (Pacers)
In real life, West is just as talented as a lot of the bigmen whose names I just mentioned. However, he's sandwiched around so many quality bigs in Indiana that he's seriously limited in how much he can produce for them. His stats were quite good a year ago: 17 points, 7.7 rebounds, a block and a steal per game with good averages. Still, the return of Danny Granger is likely to complicate things; keep in mind that two years ago, West was only averaging 12.8 points and 6.6 rebounds for Indy. So if you were to split the difference between his first and second seasons with the Pacers, West would average 15 points and 7 rebounds. As we get later and later into the draft, it becomes important to adjust our expectations. Fifty players in, it's no longer reasonable to demand an 18-and-10 year from someone, so 15-and-7 is perfectly acceptable -- though the fairly lowing ceiling to his production makes him less desirable than some of the others on this list.
To Be Continued: Players 51-150...
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