Day 22: To buy or not to buy Tobias Harris

(Illustration courtesy of Wang Tao)

So last year, I was only in one fantasy basketball league. And it was a super casual league, and my team -- helmed by Steph Curry, LeBron James and Dwight Howard -- was so unstoppable that I more or less stopped paying attention to the waiver wire by the end of February. My team was on complete cruise control, and as a result, I pretty much missed out on the fantasy godsend that was Tobias Harris; I knew that he was doing good for the Magic, but I never really knew how good. So when it came time for me to assess him in my preseason draft evaluation thingy, I pretty much discounted him on the spot. And wouldn't you know it -- the dude immediately got hurt and has yet to play in a game. (Whew.)

But now he's apparently close to returning and his name happens to be floating on the waiver wire in four out of every 10 Yahoo! leagues. And so it's worth asking the question: is Tobias Harris worth picking up, right now, without an exact timetable for when he'll return?

Yes... with an asterisk.

In 27 games with the Magic -- after getting traded from the Bucks in the last months of the year -- the second-year pro averaged 17-and-8.5 a game with a block, a steal and a three for good measure. And he did it while getting 36 minutes a night. Without a doubt, Tobias Harris won the fantasy league for a lot of owners last year. He's a fantasy bball hero (or villain, depending on which end of the spectrum you may have been at with him).

However, those were some insanely-inflated stats he was putting up, and I'm not just saying that because he was playing for the worst team in the NBA. I say it because he was playing for the worst team in the NBA while they also happened to be catatonically crippled. Jameer Nelson, Aaron Afflalo and Glen Davis were all out with injuries, and so Harris was given carte blanche in their absence to be the team's go-to guy. And, to his credit, he absolutely flourished in the role. Still, when he rejoins the team, Nelson and Afflalo will now be there, as will Davis, as will newcomer rookie Victor Oladipo. It's going to be very, very hard him to average 17-and-8 again, especially since he'll initially be coming off the bench for the Magic.

So do I think he's going to be anywhere near what he was last spring? No. It's like when Andray Blatche suddenly became a scoring machine after the Wizards dispensed with Gilbert Arenas, Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. His sudden fantasy ascension had less to do with his own evolution as a player and more to do with the environment he was in. Harris is not a bad player by any means. In fact, I believe he's worth a speculative add not only because he can still be a solid fantasy contributor, but because his ceiling was so high a year ago that it's almost worth it to be wrong about him just on the off chance he could be that type of beast again. And hey -- Nelson and Afflalo could both be traded at some point, which would definitely open the door for Harris to again work his magic in Orlando (if I can use that craptastic pun).

All the same, Harris' stats from a year ago were largely a byproduct of the team's ineptitude, which might explain why they went a paltry 5-22 in his 27 games with them. Now that the Magic are a better, healthier team, there's at least a 95% chance that his numbers will be substantially lower than what they were a year ago. Harris is sill capable of averaging a quality statline if/when he reasserts himself as Orlando's starting small forward -- something reasonable would be 13 points and 7 rebounds a game. You know, nothing mindbending. But don't add him with the expectation of him being the same guy he was last year. That ship (in all likeliness) has sailed.

If you don't mind waiting a week or so for him to get back into the swing of things and if you're willing to lower your expectations, Harris might be available in your fantasy league.

Other players! (I need to work on my transition skills.)

• On the heels of his GM publicly questioning whether he's fit to be the team's leading scorer, Jeff Green laid an egg in Houston, producing just 4 points and 2 rebounds and 22 minutes. Is it time to panic? Not really... ish. The Celtics got annihilated by Houston, to the extent that their entire starting five only managed 35 points. So, you can largely discount this performance. Green, by process of elimination, is the man best suited to be the Celtics' go-to guy and should have a good scoring year for the C's. But... he provides so little in the ways of anything but points and the occasional rebound that, even at his best, he's fairly overvalued. Don't give up on Green if you want decent scoring from a guy with lots of position eligibility; if you'd like something more, however, you might be best suited looking elsewhere.
• Avery Bradley had one of the most disgusting lines I've ever seen in my life: not only did the Celtics' point guard shoot an insane 5-22 from the floor, he handed out no assists, he turned the ball over 3 times and he had a game-worst plus-minus of -36. In other words, it's a miracle Bradley also didn't slip in a puddle of his own urine and break his wrist on his way to the locker room.
• Terrence Jones had another good game for the Rockets, posting 24 points, 9 rebounds and 2 blocks on 10-12 shooting. Omer Asik did indeed play, but he was on the floor for just 6 minutes and is hardly a threat to steal playing time from him. Jones has safely secured the starting power forward position role in Houston and is rewarding his owners with an ample amount of rebounds and blocks, along with some great shooting and an occasional three. Is he going to be this good all year? Maybe not. But right now, there's absolutely no reason not to own him.
• Rodney Stuckey had 21 points and 5 assists in 31 minutes off the bench for Detroit, partially because Chauncey Billups and Will Bynum were both out with injuries. Stuckey has quietly had a decent season and isn't a horrible guy to have at the end of your fantasy team. The problem, though, is that he doesn't have much room to grow in his current situation, so don't expect him to wow you on a nightly basis.
• Martell Webster vindicated those who added him this weekend, posting 17 points, 9 rebounds, 5 three's and a block in a whopping 43 minutes (!) of action. The fun is going to stop when Trevor Ariza comes back from his injury, but Webster's an absolute lock to put up quality stats in the interim.
• Bradley Beal's terrific play of late continued on Tuesday, with the Wizards guard getting 25 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals and 2 three's. Beal is rapidly asserting himself as the go-to man on the Wizards and should have little trouble maintaining a 20-point scoring average throughout the year.
• Corey Brewer had a nice night for Minnesota: 16 points, 4 rebounds, 4 steals. Brewer is a more refined version of Tony Allen; the main reason to own him is that he's awesome at stealing the ball, and unlike Allen, he's capable of helping you in the three-point category. Brewer, like Stuckey, is in that fringe you-can-add-him-but-he's-not-amazing-so-it's-okay-if-you-don't-pick-him-up-but-maybe-you-should-anyway category.
• Speaking of Tony Allen, the Grizzlies wing defender was suspended a game for whacking Chris Paul in the face with his foot. And because he got ejected in the first quarter for that as well, Allen will essentially sit out seven full quarters from this. Bummer.
• Both Dwyane Wade and Paul Millsap were rested on Tuesday. Wade, who the team doesn't want to play in both games of a back-to-back, watched the game in street clothes even though Miami hadn't played since Saturday. Millsap, meanwhile, sat out due to elbow tendinitis and is day-to-day.
• More injury news. Stephen Curry's "headache" from the other day actually got upgraded to a mild concussion, so he'll miss Wednesday's game against the Grizzlies, which really sucks -- and I say that as a resident Curry owner. Kobe Bryant, meanwhile, says he thinks he can return to the court by the end of November. His owners can rejoice at that, as it means he's clearly not far away from returning, but it's pretty unlikely that he'll make his season debut in November, if only because the Lakers' finally three games in the month are all in the east coast.
• Ben McLemore had the best game of his young NBA career, scoring 19 points on 4 three's to go with 5 rebounds. A breakout performance? Not exactly, but it's still promising. The Kings are sticking with their first round pick in the starting two-guard spot, and so long as he continues to get decent playing time, McLemore could be a decent source of three's. I say "could," because he hasn't proven that he can do this on a regular basis yet. For now, just keep an eye on him.
• Markieff Morris got into foul trouble and played only 11 minutes last night, 13 less than his brother Marcus and 3 less than Ish Smith. (No, not Ish Mael. Ish Smith.) This makes three duds in a row for Morris after his sensational start to the regular season. Should owners give up on him? No, just because his bad performances have all been quasi-excusable -- first because of a flu, and this time because of foul trouble. Is it possible he's not quite primed to be the star some (like myself) think he can be? Maybe. But hey: it's just three games and it's an incredibly long season. For what it's worth, my eyes would light up like a Chevy Nova if Markieff Morris suddenly got dropped in the league I'm in.
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