(Illustration courtesy of Mike Harrison)
So yesterday, I finally got a chance to see the Washington Wizards play; as I've previously noted, I'm ineligible to watch any of their games because of NBA League Pass' silly blackout restrictions. However, because they were playing the Sixers, who I'm able to watch on local television, I was able to sit down and appreciate their general lousiness. Admittedly, one of the reasons I watched this rather unattractive Sixers-Wizards matchup was because I own Trevor Ariza in one of the leagues I'm in. Ariza has been putting up crazy numbers so far, and I had to see for myself whether or not his statlines should be taken seriously.

The Wizards are a unique team, in fhat basically everyone on their roster is horribly flawed in at least one aspect. Bradley Beal is young and inconsistent; John Wall constantly blows lay-ups and misses outside shots; Nene gets hurt all the time; Marcin Gortat is a ball-hog. And so, Ariza, who's starting at small forward, has an interesting role on the Wizards because even though he isn't that good a shooter, he's easily their most complete player. He's their best defender, he can hit an open shot, he's maybe the one guy on offense unlikely to put up some crazy groan-inducing field-goal attempt, and -- strange as it is to say -- he might be their best rebounder too. Nene is somewhat undersized and Gortat is only good at grabbing boards that are three feet in front of him; Ariza, at 6-8, is tall enough that he's always in good condition to pull down a rebound on this team.

Yesterday, Ariza came away with 15 points, 6 rebounds, 3 three's, 3 steals and 3 assists, and he didn't even do anything in the fourth quarter because the Wizards' had a 20-point lead. Even factoring in that fourth-quarter resting, Ariza is playing 35.5 minutes a night and is averaging 17 points, 9.3 rebounds, 3.3 three's, 3 assists and 2 steals a game. In other words, he's playing the way everyone hoped Kawhi Leonard would be playing this season. But is it sustainable?

Ariza, though he's been in the league for a little while, is only 28 years old, so it wouldn't be unreasonable to consider this a "peak" year for him. He was at his most useful in Houston in 2010, when he played 36.5 minutes a night and averaged 14.9 points, 5.6 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.8 steals and 1.9 three's, and this is easily the best fantasy situation he's been in since then. Small forward Otto Porter Jr., who the Wizards selected with No. 3 overall pick in the 2013 draft, has no timetable for when he actually get on the floor. And considering Randy Whitman seems to be making a concerted effort to have his best possible lineup out on the floor at all times (you know, to save his job), I think Ariza is a safe bet to average somewhere between 32 and 36 minutes a night this year.

The bad side to Ariza: he's not a good shooter. Even now, he's only shooting 40% from the floor, and while he's certainly capable of hitting an outside shot, he's sure to see his scoring and three-point totals go down, especially with Bradley Beal poised to become a scoring machine this season. Also, he's a gigantic injury risk. Since 2006 (his second year in the league), Ariza has missed at least 25 games five times, including the past two seasons, in which he sat out a combined 67 games.

I'll summarize Ariza by saying this: right now, at this instance, he's tremendously valuable -- as a shooting guard capable of getting 9 rebounds a night. And he should have a good run at being this valuable for however long it is until Porter Jr. comes back or he himself gets hurt, whichever comes first. However, while I don't doubt the sincerity of his numbers, I question the longevity of them. It's dangerous to own guys like Ariza who are liable to suffer a terrible injury at any given moment. I think it's safe to keep him on your roster for the foreseeable future, but... I'd be looking to sell high on him if you can make it happen. (And since I happen to own him, that's exactly what I plan to do.)

All right. Time to dive into some other fantasy dudes...
  • I need to give an apology to Nikola Vucevic, who came through with 30 points and 21 rebounds against the Clippers. In the games I watched of him last year, he didn't really impress me, and even when he put up tremendous rebounding numbers, I looked at them with a hefty amount of skepticism. It's hard to trust a guy who puts up big numbers on a team that never wins, but you know what? I've seen a few Magic games this year (they're much more entertaining now that they have Oladipo), and Vucevic -- even before this performance -- really impressed me. He's developed a very dependable inside game and might just be the best rebounder in the league. Vucevic: I'm sorry, dude. I'm going to do what fantasy analysts never, ever do and man up, because I totally undervalued you. Even if/when Glen Davis returns from his interminable injury resting, Vucevic will remain a fantastic fantasy option. (Don't pelt me with rotten fruit! I... I didn't know any better! I swear!)
  • DeAndre Jordan had 9 points and 19 rebounds for the Clippers. Lost in all the love granted to Andre Drummond recently is that Jordan isn't that far off from him. The points are going to be inconsistent, but considering how weak the Clippers' bench is at the center position (*cough* Byron Mullens *cough*), Jordan is a stone-cold lock to put up double-digit rebounds and at least two blocks a game. If you don't mind the free-throw percentage, I recommend sending out an offer for him pronto.
  • Serge Ibaka came to play against the Mavs, producing 17 points, 13 rebounds and 3 blocks. Hopefully this quells any fears his owners might have had over his initial three sub-par games; it's hard not to love the reigning shot-blocking champ in fantasy basketball, especially when he can hit a three-pointer every once in a while. (He did so last night.)
  • How far off your radar should Anthony Bennett be? Let me put it this way -- it was a headline that he finally hit a shot. The Cavs rookie went 1-5 on Wednesday and is a stunning 1-20 from the floor on the year. Considering how productive Michael Carter-Williams and Victor Oladipo already are, I don't think it's unreasonable to wonder just how horrible a decision it was for the Cavs to reach on this kid. Sure, things could turn around in a hurry. But since he's off to the worst shooting start of any No. 1 pick in history, a little panic is more than warranted.
  • Larry Sanders missed Wednesday's game due to a sprained thumb, an injury he sustained when he -- and this is great -- got into a fight at a bar. His fantasy owners, who might have nabbed him as early as in the second round, have got to be fidgety right about now, and if you ever wanted to get him in a trade, this is absolutely the time to do it. Even before this inane injury, Sanders was a fantasy toxin, averaging 2.7 points and 3.7 rebounds a game, which is GARBAGE for any fantasy player, regardless of where they're taken in the draft. However, he's still blocking shots at a decent clip and because the team gave him all that money in the offseason, it stands to reason that they're going to let him work out whatever kinks he's going through -- off-court issues notwithstanding. I expect him to settle in as a productive player eventually, but for now, he's an absolute nightmare to own.
  • Zaza Pachulia filled Sanders' place admirably, notching 14 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists. Pachulia, a veteran, isn't poised to have much fantasy value at all this year... except in this instance, because Larry Sanders is out of action. Pachulia played an eyebrow-raising 40 minutes last night, so it's possible he might have another decent game or two in him before Sanders is able to play again.
  • Harrison Barnes finally got on the court and did good things for the Warriors, collecting 14 points, 2 rebounds, 2 steals and a block on 6-8 shooting in just 14 minutes. Barnes is set to be a consistent fantasy option off the bench for the Dubs, though his potential is going to be squelched slightly, as he'll still be playing behind Klay Thompson -- who scored 30 points and hit 6 three's yesterday. Barnes will become a must-own fantasy option if Thompson or Iguodala ever get hurt; at the moment, he's probably just going to be a fringe player, but he's oozing with talent and has a serious chance to be productive, even playing reduced minutes. I wouldn't hesitate to grab him if you need a small forward.
  • Stephen Curry sprained his ankle on Wednesday. (Everybody drink!) Curry, as fantasy geeks know all too well, has ankles made out of chewing gum, lint and one of those twist-ties you use to keep bread fresh. Fortunately, these injuries of his never seem to keep him out too long, so Curry owners shouldn't panic, though he may not help you much the rest of the week.
  • Michael Carter-Williams had 19 points, 7 assists, 5 rebounds, 2 steals and a block. If you're not satisfied with that, you're expectations seriously need to be lowered.
  • Channing Frye, how dare you make me look bad! Frye put up just 3 points and 4 rebounds against the Spurs, while Markieff Morris put up 23 and 12 off the bench and his brother Marcus Morris chipped in with 11, 6 and a three-pointer. Between these three entities and Miles Plumlee, it's starting to become clear that the Suns have a musical chairs situation going on in fantasy, where on a nightly basis, any one of them could step up and have a great outing. Plumlee remains the safest to own, though he's by no means a lock on a nightly basis. And as for Frye... well, it was worth it to snatch him from the waiver wire, because he's a beast when he's doing stuff. But he's not doing stuff, so... yeah.
  • Okay, there's someone else I need to apologize to. The other day, it dawned on me that when I was writing about Isaiah Thomas of the Sacramento Kings, I was spelling his first name "Isiah," which is how you spell the first name of the former Pistons guard/atrocious Knicks GM. It wasn't even that I didn't know to put the extra 'a' in his name, as much as that I've written about "Isiah Thomas" so much over the years that it was just an autonomic impulse to spell it that way. But anyway, sorry dude. I guess I need to buy Isaiah Thomas and Nic Vucevic dinner someday.

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